Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.008605 0.009698 0.010896 0.012308 0.013930 0.015741 0.017920
2024-12-29 0.006806 0.008267 0.010008 0.012249 0.015074 0.018543 0.023161
2025-01-05 0.006091 0.007780 0.009913 0.012828 0.016752 0.021909 0.029300
2025-01-12 0.005214 0.006919 0.009165 0.012384 0.016943 0.023268 0.032883
2025-01-19 0.004581 0.006277 0.008597 0.012055 0.017174 0.024620 0.036549
2025-01-26 0.004173 0.005885 0.008307 0.012052 0.017825 0.026601 0.041372
2025-02-02 0.003985 0.005778 0.008399 0.012598 0.019335 0.030033 0.048959
2025-02-09 0.003672 0.005451 0.008123 0.012537 0.019865 0.031953 0.054291
2025-02-16 0.003447 0.005232 0.007985 0.012666 0.020701 0.034455 0.060986
2025-02-23 0.003184 0.004929 0.007680 0.012483 0.020974 0.035999 0.066131
2025-03-02 0.003020 0.004768 0.007587 0.012639 0.021843 0.038694 0.073877
2025-03-09 0.002837 0.004558 0.007394 0.012597 0.022342 0.040753 0.080658
2025-03-16 0.002577 0.004208 0.006947 0.012084 0.021955 0.041162 0.084293
2025-03-23 0.002417 0.004016 0.006760 0.012031 0.022452 0.043405 0.092365
2025-03-30 0.002367 0.004011 0.006899 0.012598 0.024232 0.048509 0.107880
2025-04-06 0.002178 0.003743 0.006538 0.012163 0.023919 0.049129 0.112901
2025-04-13 0.002022 0.003523 0.006248 0.011841 0.023799 0.050150 0.119103
2025-04-20 0.001921 0.003397 0.006125 0.011838 0.024362 0.052784 0.129961
2025-04-27 0.001894 0.003406 0.006256 0.012373 0.026175 0.058598 0.150587
2025-05-04 0.001800 0.003279 0.006114 0.012313 0.026627 0.061203 0.162844
2025-05-11 0.001733 0.003201 0.006060 0.012439 0.027529 0.065060 0.179628
2025-05-18 0.001639 0.003063 0.005877 0.012260 0.027674 0.066987 0.190985
2025-05-25 0.001586 0.003001 0.005843 0.012413 0.028653 0.071270 0.210817